Austin Ekeler was concussed late in the Commanders' loss and taken to hospital for evaluationSince reaching a bear market bottom a little over two years ago, the bulls have been running the show on Wall Street. This year, the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI 0.97% ) , benchmark S&P 500 ( ^GSPC 0.35% ) , and growth stock-dependent Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC 0.16% ) have reached multiple all-time highs. The wind in Wall Street's sails has been a "team" effort, with the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, stock-split euphoria, better-than-anticipated corporate operating results, a resurgence in share repurchase activity, and optimism following President-elect Donald Trump's victory all leading the charge. While this collection of catalysts might appear unstoppable on the surface, history offers a different lesson. The stock market had previously never done this throughout its storied history Since the height of the 2022 bear market, there have been a couple of predictive tools and correlative events that have foreshadowed trouble for the U.S. economy and/or Wall Street. The longest yield-curve inversion in history, a historically high S&P 500 Shiller price-to-earnings ratio , and the first meaningful drop in U.S. M2 money supply since the Great Depression have all previously served as warnings for Wall Street. But perhaps nothing screams "pay attention" to investors quite like the long-term valuation metric Berkshire Hathaway 's billionaire CEO Warren Buffett once touted. In a 2001 interview with Fortune magazine, Buffett lauded the market cap-to- gross domestic product (GDP) ratio as "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment." Even though the aptly named Oracle of Omaha has backed away from solely relying on this valuation tool, it's commonly referred to as the "Buffett Indicator" on Wall Street . The Buffett Indicator takes the collective market value of a country's publicly traded stocks and divides that figure into its GDP. The lower the ratio, the cheaper stocks are perceived to be. Conversely, when the ratio is high, it suggests stocks are historically pricey compared to the underlying growth rate of the economy. The most-effective way to measure the value of publicly traded stocks in the U.S. is with the Wilshire 5000 Index . Each "point" higher or lower in the Wilshire 5000 Index represents a little over $1 billion gained or lost in the aggregate market value of U.S. stocks. Based on 55 years' worth of Wilshire 5000-to-GDP ratio data, which has been aggregated by Longtermtrends.net, the average reading of this "Buffett Indicator" is about 85%. In other words, the cumulative value of U.S. stocks represents about 85% the value of U.S. GDP, on average, dating back to the start of 1970. But after close to three decades below this mean (1970 through most of 1998), the Wilshire 5000-to-GDP ratio has spent almost the entire last quarter of a century at a premium to this average. In some respects, a more aggressive valuation is warranted. The advent of the internet positively changed the growth trajectory for corporate America. Likewise, it democratized access to information, which when coupled with historically low interest rates encouraged everyday investors to take more risk. However, the stock market just crossed a threshold that's never been reached with this widely followed ratio. In October, the Buffett Indicator surpassed 200% for the first time ever , and it peaked at almost 206% on Nov. 10. This is well above its 55-year average and is considerably higher than the respective peaks of 144% during the dot-com bubble and 107% prior to the financial crisis taking shape. Although the Wilshire 5000-to-GDP ratio isn't a timing tool -- i.e., it's not going to tell investors when to expect big directional moves in the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite -- it does have an exceptionally strong track record of portending downside in stocks when valuations become historically extended. A sizable jump from in the Buffett Indicator from 60% to 144% from the end of 1994 until the dot-com bubble bust in March 2000 gave way to a near-halving in the S&P 500 and considerably larger losses in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Another noteworthy increase occurred between the dot-com bubble bottom at 67% in October 2002 and the aforementioned 107% Wilshire 5000-to-GDP ratio that was reached in 2007 prior to the financial crisis taking shape. The benchmark S&P 500 lost 57% during the Great Recession. Since bottoming out at 112% on March 22, 2020 (during the height of the COVID-19 crash), the Wilshire 5000-to-GDP ratio has soared to the aforementioned 206%. If history tells us anything, it's that investors should eventually (key word!) expect a steep and/or sharp decline lower in all three major stock indexes. Time has a way of paying off handsomely for patient investors While warning signs are readily apparent for a historically pricey stock market, perspective and time paint an entirely different picture. For example, history tells us that recessions are a normal and inevitable part of the economic cycle. No matter how much we might dislike the adverse impact on employment and wages that accompanies recessions, they're a common occurrence over the long run. However, the ability for workers/investors to take a step back and widen their lens presents a different story. Although recessions are normal, they've resolved quickly since the end of World War II in 1945 . Out of the 12 downturns in the U.S. economy over the last 79 years, nine ended in less than a year, while the remaining three failed to surpass 18 months in length. The overwhelming majority of economic expansions have endured longer than the lengthiest recession in the post-World War II era. What the above comparison demonstrates is that economic cycles aren't linear. In other words, the U.S. economy spends a disproportionate amount of time in the sun, rather than under storm clouds. This is fantastic news for America's most-influential businesses because this non-linearity extends to the stock market. The data set you'll note above was published on social media platform X by the researchers at Bespoke Investment Group in June 2023, shortly after the S&P 500 was confirmed to have entered a new bull market . What this data set shows is the calculated calendar-day length of every bear and bull market for the S&P 500 dating back to the start of the Great Depression in September 1929. The average S&P 500 bear market, which sees the index decline by at least 20% in value from a recent high, was calculated to last 286 calendar days, or roughly 9.5 months . On the other end of the spectrum, the typical bull market has stuck around for 1,011 calendar days, which is approximately 3.5 times as long. What's even more telling is that 14 out of 27 S&P 500 bull markets (including the current bull market) have endured longer than the lengthiest S&P 500 bear market on record (630 calendar days). Regardless of how worrisome predictive metrics may appear over short time frames, they can't hold a candle to investors' greatest ally: time.
Philadelphia Flyers President Keith Jones recently discussed Matvei Michkov ’s response to a two-game scratching on the FAN Hockey Show . Jones expressed how pleased the organization was with the Russian rookie’s maturity, attitude, and performance upon returning to the lineup. Some might argue that Michkov’s reaction means the Flyers’ player development plan under head coach John Tortorella is working. Why Michkov Sat for Two Games Michkov’s scratching was not solely about punishment but a calculated decision to help him learn and reset. Tortorella has consistently used this approach with players, including Travis Sanheim . According to Jones, Michkov had struggled in the five games leading up to the benching. Sitting him allowed the team to refocus Michkov’s mindset, allowing him to analyze his game from a new perspective. The team’s performance during Michkov’s absence added another layer to the decision. With a win in his first missed game, the Flyers sent a broader message about accountability to the entire roster. Michkov’s Response Was Exceptional Jones emphasized how Michkov took the benching “exactly how the Flyers hoped he would.” Some young players might sulk or underperform after such an experience, but Michkov responded by embracing the lesson. His performance exceeded expectations when he returned to the lineup, showing significant growth and maturity. Jones noted that Michkov’s reaction sets a positive example and reflects the type of culture the Flyers aim to build. His willingness to adapt and improve following the setback underscores why the team believes Michkov will play a significant role in their future success. The Flyers’ Long-Term Focus The Flyers recognize they are still rebuilding and setting the foundation for consistent playoff contention. Developing young talent like Michkov is crucial to that process. Tortorella’s approach, while challenging at times, aligns with the organization’s goals of fostering resilience and accountability in its players. Jones highlighted that these lessons are as much about building character as they are about improving on-ice performance. For Michkov, the experience appears to have been a valuable stepping stone in his young career. The Bottom Line: A Model for Growth Michkov’s ability to bounce back from a two-game scratch demonstrates his potential as a player and the effectiveness of the Flyers’ developmental philosophy. His story could serve as a blueprint for how the Flyers handle young talent in the future. This episode might signal the beginning of Michkov’s transformation into a cornerstone player for Philadelphia. If he continues to take challenges in stride and use them as opportunities to grow, his ceiling could be higher than anyone initially anticipated. This article first appeared on NHL Trade Talk and was syndicated with permission.B. Metzler seel. Sohn & Co. Holding AG acquired a new position in Brown & Brown, Inc. ( NYSE:BRO – Free Report ) during the third quarter, according to its most recent filing with the SEC. The firm acquired 6,234 shares of the financial services provider’s stock, valued at approximately $646,000. Several other hedge funds have also recently made changes to their positions in the business. Oregon Public Employees Retirement Fund raised its holdings in Brown & Brown by 0.5% in the 2nd quarter. Oregon Public Employees Retirement Fund now owns 20,339 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $1,819,000 after acquiring an additional 100 shares during the last quarter. Trust Point Inc. increased its holdings in shares of Brown & Brown by 4.3% in the 3rd quarter. Trust Point Inc. now owns 2,519 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $261,000 after purchasing an additional 103 shares in the last quarter. Creative Planning raised its stake in shares of Brown & Brown by 0.4% in the third quarter. Creative Planning now owns 29,892 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $3,097,000 after purchasing an additional 112 shares during the last quarter. Crossmark Global Holdings Inc. lifted its holdings in shares of Brown & Brown by 0.5% during the third quarter. Crossmark Global Holdings Inc. now owns 22,929 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $2,375,000 after purchasing an additional 113 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Anchor Investment Management LLC boosted its position in shares of Brown & Brown by 4.0% during the second quarter. Anchor Investment Management LLC now owns 3,286 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $294,000 after buying an additional 125 shares during the last quarter. 71.01% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors. Wall Street Analyst Weigh In A number of equities analysts have weighed in on BRO shares. Royal Bank of Canada boosted their target price on Brown & Brown from $113.00 to $118.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Wednesday, October 30th. Jefferies Financial Group increased their price objective on shares of Brown & Brown from $98.00 to $104.00 and gave the company a “hold” rating in a research report on Wednesday, October 9th. Argus started coverage on shares of Brown & Brown in a report on Tuesday, September 24th. They issued a “buy” rating and a $120.00 target price on the stock. StockNews.com lowered shares of Brown & Brown from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Saturday, November 2nd. Finally, Barclays raised their price target on Brown & Brown from $108.00 to $119.00 and gave the stock an “equal weight” rating in a research note on Thursday. One analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, five have issued a hold rating and seven have issued a buy rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, Brown & Brown has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $107.42. Insiders Place Their Bets In other news, Chairman Hyatt J. Brown sold 134,640 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, August 29th. The shares were sold at an average price of $104.51, for a total value of $14,071,226.40. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at the SEC website . 17.02% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders. Brown & Brown Price Performance Shares of NYSE:BRO opened at $112.05 on Friday. The company has a market capitalization of $32.04 billion, a P/E ratio of 30.53, a P/E/G ratio of 2.55 and a beta of 0.82. Brown & Brown, Inc. has a 1-year low of $69.13 and a 1-year high of $114.08. The firm’s 50 day simple moving average is $106.16 and its two-hundred day simple moving average is $98.82. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52, a current ratio of 1.73 and a quick ratio of 1.73. Brown & Brown ( NYSE:BRO – Get Free Report ) last issued its earnings results on Monday, October 28th. The financial services provider reported $0.91 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.88 by $0.03. The company had revenue of $1.19 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.16 billion. Brown & Brown had a net margin of 22.65% and a return on equity of 17.12%. Brown & Brown’s quarterly revenue was up 11.0% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted $0.71 EPS. Research analysts expect that Brown & Brown, Inc. will post 3.74 EPS for the current fiscal year. Brown & Brown Increases Dividend The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Wednesday, November 13th. Investors of record on Wednesday, November 6th were issued a $0.15 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Wednesday, November 6th. This is a boost from Brown & Brown’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.13. This represents a $0.60 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 0.54%. Brown & Brown’s payout ratio is currently 16.35%. About Brown & Brown ( Free Report ) Brown & Brown, Inc markets and sells insurance products and services in the United States, Canada, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail, National Programs, Wholesale Brokerage, and Services. The Retail segment provides property and casualty, employee benefits insurance products, personal insurance products, specialties insurance products, risk management strategies, loss control survey and analysis, consultancy, and claims processing services. Read More Want to see what other hedge funds are holding BRO? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Brown & Brown, Inc. ( NYSE:BRO – Free Report ). Receive News & Ratings for Brown & Brown Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Brown & Brown and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter .